THE DOCTOR IS IN
OP / ED BY DR. ADIL MANZOOR
COVID is not over yet, even though the hype train that followed it has greatly died down. In fact, there are people that are starting to question if the infection was worth all the attention it got in the first place (answer: it certainly was). Perhaps more worrying, there are people that question if there is a need for further safety measures and vaccine shots for the infection (answer: there are).
But, it is easy to give answers to the questions and doubts a significant proportion of the population has about the infection, especially considering how low the number of hospitalizations and deaths has fallen. Consider this – in the week of January 15, 2022, at the height of the Omicron strain wave, there were more than 150,000 new hospital admissions. By comparison, in the week of July 1, there were about 6,200 new hospital admissions. No one can deny that the drop is significant enough for people to believe COVID is in our rear mirrors now.
The notion many had about COVID not being serious anymore was strengthened when the World Health Organization and the CDC declared that COVID was no longer a public health emergency. That announcement was more than enough ammunition for those that believed it is finally time to move on from the COVID era. I kid you not, I have seen people being bullied for wearing a mask in 2023. About two years ago, you would have been bullied for not wearing a mask.
So, in my expert opinion, is the COVID era over? That’s likely the question many people have at this point in the article. Well, the answer is actually quite simple – the COVID era may never be over. Matter of fact, I can change that “may” to “will” and still be confident in the answer. In simpler terms, it is a strong possibility, which experts have backed, that COVID may become endemic and we just learn to live with it.
So, while COVID is no longer a public health emergency, it is still very much an infection to worry about. Here’s why – the coronavirus is liable to mutating, as we have seen, and the newer strains may bring more challenges. Further, eventually, vaccine availability will not be as widespread as it is right now because organizations and bodies will start aggressively cost-sharing. Then, there’s long COVID in the mix as well.
The summary of everything I have written thus far is: COVID is not over yet. Nonetheless, some Americans are already transitioning to the next phase. I will spare you most of the technicalities, but the WHO has a continuum of pandemic phases, which includes four phases. They are the “interpandemic,” “alert,” “pandemic,” and “transition” phases.
Basically, the interpandemic phase is the phase right before cases start to rise across the globe. The alert phase is one where global average cases start to rapidly rise, before eventually peaking at the pandemic phase. The final distinct phase is the transition phase, which is characterized by a great decline in the number of cases. However, there is still a risk of a minor recurrent wave during the transition phase. After the transition phase, there is a return to the interpandemic phase in terms of the number of cases. I promised to spare you the technicalities, so I apologize if things are starting to get a bit complicated.
The point I am trying to make is, some Americans already have the mindset that COVID is over and things can return to normalcy because cases have greatly declined (as is expected in the transition phase of the pandemic continuum). Essentially, people are starting to move on. While I cannot fault that, I must say it is necessary to exercise caution.
The transition phase has an inherent risk of a recurrent wave if care is not taken. As such, every action has to be measured and calculated. Of course, we eventually have to move on from treating COVID as a public health emergency – it is no longer one – but transitioning too fast to the “normalcy” phase can cause more harm than good.
This article was written by Dr. Adil Manzoor, DO, a Board-Certified Internist & Board Certified Pediatrician who works as a Hospitalist and Emergency Room Physician. He is also the current President of Garden State Street Medicine, a non-profit organization whose sole purpose is to provide free preventive and acute urgent care services for the homeless. He is also the co-founder of his own unique medical practice, Mobile Medicine NJ & House call Doctors. He is also currently pursuing an Executive MBA and a Master’s of Science in Healthcare Leadership at Samuel Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management and the Weill Cornell Graduate School of Medical Sciences.
References
- https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/3997820-the-covid-health-emergency-is-ending-the-nations-vigilance-should-not/
- https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2023/05/12/1173993754/coronavirus-faq-emergency-over-do-we-unmask-and-grin-or-adjust-our-worries
- https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/01/11/1071568846/u-s-covid-hospitalizations-hit-new-record-high-raising-risks-for-patients
- https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklyhospitaladmissions_select_00
- https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/planning-preparedness/global-planning-508.html#:~:text=The%20four%20phases%20include%20%E2%80%9Cinterpandemic,of%20the%20pandemic%20risk%20assessment.
