THE DOCTOR IS IN
OP / ED BY DR. ADIL MANZOOR
If your ears and eyes were closed to the news in the medical world around the start of winter, you would have heard of the “tripledemic” threat. I also wrote about it not too long ago. For those that have forgotten or are hearing it for the first time, let me fill you in.
The tripledemic is a term devised in the medical world used to highlight the danger of having the coronavirus, influenza (the common flu) virus, and the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) peaking around the same period. Considering each of these viruses is pretty formidable on its own, there was a real fear of what may happen if they peak in the population simultaneously.
As you would expect, the prospect of this struck fear into the hearts of many health workers and brought back fears of the winter of 2021 when hospital beds were filled to the brim and people dying in the thousands every week. That’s basically the summary of the tripledemic threat.
Many experts drew up predictions about when the tripledemic era would begin and even the estimated number of lives that could be lost. Healthcare workers were bracing themselves up for another period of “hell” in the hospitals; sorry for using that word, but there’s really no other word to describe what the early stages of the coronavirus felt like. The next closest word is miserable. The workload was overwhelming, and burnout among healthcare workers was massively on the rise.
I’d be honest with you, the triple viral threat (another name people called the tripledemic) was one that left us medical practitioners all shivering. In fact, there were calls for the government to declare another state of emergency in the country. It was that serious.
However, fast forward a few weeks, and the surge in cases of the three viruses did not materialize. The tripledemic threat gradually began to fade, and now, there’s almost full confidence that the triple viral threat was wildly exaggerated. But why?
Well, to start with, the term “tripledemic” was not what many people thought it was. Hearing it, the minds of several people went to the three viruses occurring together in an individual. This is far from the case. Rather, the triple viral threat was just the three viruses peaking around the same period. The effect was more to be felt by hospitals and medical practitioners than actual individuals. I believe this contributed to the panic among the general public.
Further, while there was a moment when the three viruses were prevalent in the population, cases quickly normalized. The early waves of RSV and the flu peaked before the New Year. Although there was an increase in coronavirus cases, it was nowhere near the levels of the 2021 winter. So, hospitals still have had to take on more workload, but not as much as they imagined or feared. It has been the “regular” amount of busy.
Essentially, the tripledemic was a case where many overestimated the threat of a health concern. That, in itself, is not wrong. Many, including me, will even argue that overestimating a threat is good, as it keeps everyone on their toes. But the timing couldn’t have been worse for a gross overestimation like the tripledemic. The public is getting desensitized to the coronavirus and related news, and the tripledemic being not as severe as advertised can worsen the already high apathy to vaccinations and public health instructions.
For most hospitals, the more concerning issue is the new variant of the coronavirus XBB.1.5. I know you’re probably tired of hearing the old music of new variants, but that’s how we proceed from here. What do I mean? It is now becoming a reality for many experts and health bodies that the coronavirus will be endemic. In other words, we will have to live with the virus. Since vaccinations do a great job of limiting the damage of existing variants, the only way for an uptick in cases to arise is by new variants emerging.
However, while the threat of the tripledemic has faded and the new coronavirus variant is emerging as a more pressing concern, the unpredictable nature of the influenza virus is an issue for many health experts. There is no telling if there will be a new wave of the flu virus in spring. This is something flu experts have scratched their heads about for a while. If there is, then hospitals could get even busier.
In summary, the tripledemic did not come as stated, and thankfully so. But health experts need to be more careful in assessing threats for the sake of public compliance. Stay safe.
This article was written by Dr. Adil Manzoor DO, a Board-Certified Internist & Board Certified Pediatrician, who works as a Hospitalist, and Emergency Room Physician. He is also the current President of Garden State Street Medicine, a non-profit organization whose sole purpose is to provide free preventive and acute urgent care services for the homeless. He is also the co-founder of his own unique medical practice Mobile Medicine NJ & House call DOctors. He is also currently pursuing an Executive MBA and a Master’s of Science in Healthcare Leadership at Samuel Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management and the Weill Cornell Graduate School of Medical Sciences.
References
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/01/22/covid-declining-flu-rsv-tripledemic/
