By Lev D. Zilbermints OP/ED
Russia will lose the war with Ukraine because of logistics, poor supply lines, planning, and other factors. In this article, I will look cite examples from Russian military history that ended in defeat. These include the Crimean War (1853-1856); Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905); World War I (1914-1918); the early stages of the Winter War (1939-1940) and World II (1941-1945); as well as the Afghan War (1979-1989). With the exception of the Winter War and World War II, Russia lost every single war. Why?
First, logistics. During the Crimean War of 1853-1855, it was difficult to supply the army and navy in Crimea. There were no railroads to speak of, so supplies had to be transported by horseback and mule. Meanwhile, the British actually laid down a railroad track that allowed them to easily transport supplies. The Ottoman Empire, located geographically close to Crimea, was able to transfer ships and troops faster than the Russian Empire. France and Sardinia, allies of the Ottoman Empire, had better logistics than Russia.
During the Russo-Japanese War of 1905-1906, fighting took place in the Liaodong Peninsula. These included the Siege of Port Arthur, as well as battles on land and sea. Again, long distances created a challenge for the supplying of the Imperial Russian Army. Supplies had to be sent via the Chinese Far East Railway, a one-track railroad. In some places, the railway did not work. When this happened, supplies had to be sent by horse, mule, or boat. Meanwhile, the Japanese Empire could easily supply its army by sea and land.
World War I (1914-1918) saw Russia unprepared. Long distances meant that Russia had overextended supply lines. For example, by 1915, Russia was experiencing shortages in ammunition, rifles, and other necessities. The distances of transporting were vast. Russia was simply unprepared to wage a long-term war over vast distances. By 1917, the state of the railroads had worsened, and many factories stopped working. Revolution broke out in March, 1917. Czar Nicholas II was forced to abdicate in favor of his brother, Grand Duke Michael. The latter, after a nominal reign of 16 hours as Czar Michael II, refused to accept the crown. Michael stated in his manifesto of March 16, 1917, that he would only accept the crown if the Russian people offered it to him. That did not happen. Lenin and the Bolsheviks took power in November 1917. Michael was shot by Bolsheviks in Perm in June 1918.
The Winter War of 1939-1940 against Finland saw Russia getting beaten. The Finns knew every inch of their land very well. During the winter of 1939-1940, the Finns inflicted a series of defeats against Soviet Russian troops. Here again, long distances and poor organization worked against Russia. The Finns created troops that, wearing white uniforms, blended with the snow. Using camouflage, Finns unleashed a series of attacks against unprepared Russians. It was not until spring 1940 came that the Russians were able to breach the Mannerheim Line, the Finnish defenses. At that point, Finland sued for peace. However, when Germany invaded Russia in 1941, Finland participated in the invasion. Their reason was to bring back the land that Russia took from Finland in 1940.
When Germany invaded Russia on June 22, 1941, it initially had great success. Russian forces were taken by surprise. Again, great distances worked against Russia. In the initial phase of WW2, June 1941 – early 1942, Germany had the advantage. The time it took to transport troops to the front over less-than-ideal roads meant that the opposing side made progress. Still by 1942, Russia was able to start counterattacking back against Nazi Germany. Ultimately, Russia had the satisfaction of seeing Germany sign unconditional surrender in May 1945.
The Afghan War of 1979-1989 saw Russia in control of cities, but leaving the countryside to the mujahedeen. This meant that while Russia could keep its troops supplied by air, it could not gain control of the entire country. The population was hostile; mujahedeen had Stinger rockets that shot down Russian planes; and Russian losses kept mounting. Finally, in 1989, Mikhail Gorbachev, the last Soviet leader, withdrew the troops from Afghanistan.
What do all these examples mean? Anyone who studies Russian history will see that in 1905 and 1917, and 1991 revolutions broke out. If it was not for Czar Alexander II and his reforms, revolution would have broken out in the 1850s. The point of the matter is that Russian losses in Ukraine will bring about a change of regime. Putin, whom U.S. President Biden calls a butcher and a war criminal, will be overthrown or commit suicide. It is not clear when this happens, but it will happen.
In Ukraine, we see poor planning and poor supply lines. Seven Russian generals and colonels have been killed. Russian-allied Donbas troops are being issued rifles of World War II and World War vintage. There is no training for troops, nor enough food. Russian troops in Ukraine consist of frightened conscripts who were not told where they were sent. With no supplies, Russian troops have taken to robbing the local population. Rape, looting, torture, executions, are all being performed by Russian troops with the full blessing of President – Dictator Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Minister Lavrov.
Neither Shoigu nor Lavrov have done anything to convince Putin to end the war. They are more concerned about blaming Ukraine for the atrocities Russia has done. It is a classic “blame the victim” propaganda trick. However, video evidence by space satellites and cell phones have shown that Russian claims are false. Russian troops and politicians have covered themselves with disgrace that cannot be washed off. People in Ukraine are saying Russians are worse than ISIS and the Taliban.
In conclusion, the defeat of Russian armed forces in Ukraine is certain, whether sooner or later. A population that is hostile and fiercely nationalist will fight to the last man to defend its country. Foreign countries will continue to ship arms and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Russia is experiencing insurmountable losses. Dissent at home can only be suppressed for so long. What happens when parts of the Russian Army and civilian leadership mutinies? Will it be 1917 all over again?
When Putin, the war criminal, the last Russian dictator, leaves the political scene, Russia will be free. A time will come when Russia will become more spiritual and atone greatly for the crimes being committed in her name. That time is in the next couple of decades to come.
Lev D. Zilbermints has a Master’s degree in Political Science from Rutgers-Newark. His family emigrated to the United States from then – Soviet Union in 1975. Mr. Zilbermints has been an American citizen since 1982.
