DOCTOR IS IN by Dr. Adil Manzoor OP/ED
One of the easiest ways of assessing the progression of the coronavirus is by examining charts. If you simply googled, ‘coronavirus in the US,’ you’d see one of the charts I am talking about.
From first viewing, it is clear to see that there isn’t just a flat or straight line showing the number of cases. Rather, there are undulating and depressing segments, much like hills and valleys, or more appropriately, ‘waves.’
These waves are one of the most important tools of epidemiologists when assessing any infection. You may have also heard numerous doctors and analysts refer to waves of the virus. So, what exactly makes up a wave?
Interestingly, there is no strict definition for what makes up a wave. No scientific or overly technical definition; just what you’d think. It’s basically the peaks and valleys, denoting periods of high cases recorded, and periods of low cases recorded. In the United States, we have had 4 waves of the virus, as the picture clearly shows. These four waves stand out very clearly in the chart.
It is important to understand what makes up a wave, and that is why I have briefed it out. But what causes these waves?
Well, there isn’t a straightforward answer to that question. There are many possible factors, but no one can point to just one as the certain cause of the waves. In fact, it is more correct to believe that all of the factors work together in causing the waves.
Perhaps the most dominant of these factors is our behavior and response to the virus. As humans, when an infection, typically a novel one, breaks out, we tend to panic. Maybe that’s because of our basic, primal survival instinct, or just because of the hype that usually comes with such infections. Either way, we did panic early last year.
I remember one of the most embarrassing moments in recent history was the scarcity of toiletries and the like during that time, because of huge panic buying, only for these items to be resold at far higher prices.
After the first few weeks of panic, people didn’t take the virus too seriously. I remember many politicians and news channels playing down the virus. Hell, even our president played down the virus. Before long, the virus spread like wildfire and people started dying in their numbers. That’s like the first two waves you’ll see.
Then came the third and deadliest wave of all. This, I believe, is a result of the festive period. There was Thanksgiving, Christmas, Boxing Day, and the New Year. These holidays meant people travelled a lot, neglecting all of what they have learned previously about how to minimize spread of the virus.
There were tons of gatherings and travelling around the country, and we paid dearly. This was the period we recorded the most deaths. On the 13th of January, 2021, we recorded 3,930 deaths, with the seven-day average being 3,347. Scary numbers.
We eventually overcame, and the cases kept plummeting, largely due to vaccinations, which is another major player in the progression of waves. Deaths fell from around 3400 in January to a low of 322 in July. The same applies to cases, with the country recording the lowest numbers since before the first wave.
But, COVID just never gives up, and there was the emergence of the Delta strain. Around late June to early July, cases picked up again. The Delta strain showed it was capable of evading our vaccine’s protective efforts. The fourth wave was also deadly, with daily deaths hovering around the 3000 range at its peak. But that’s starting to fall again.
Scientists suggest cases will reach an all-time low if the virus doesn’t mutate again. This brings us to one of the essential factors causing the waves – the emergence of new variants. We saw it with the Delta variant, and if another dangerous variant emerges, with better transmissibility or vaccine-evading properties, we could be well in for a fifth strain.
To prevent this, we need to all get vaccinated as soon as possible. The CDC is carefully examining booster doses, and it seems it’s only a matter of time before they become necessary. No one knows for sure how long natural immunity will last, so studies about booster doses haven’t progressed at impressive speeds.
Bar an anomaly, we should see this wave out soon. And we can only hope our government makes the right moves, however bold, in combating the virus. Stay safe, folks.
This article was written by Dr. Adil Manzoor DO, a Board Certified Internist & Board Eligible Pediatrician, who works as a Hospitalist, and Emergency Room Physician. He is also the current President of Garden State Street Medicine, a non-profit organization whose sole purpose is to provide free preventive and acute urgent care services for the homeless. He is also the co-founder of his own unique medical practice Mobile Medicine NJ.
References
· https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substa ck.com/p/why-do-we-have-waves-and-was-this
· https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/what-makes-a-wave-of-disease-an-epidemiologist-explains-141573
· https://www.thestkittsnevisobserver. com/are-covid-19s-big-waves-over-unvax-pregnancy-danger-world-stats-more/
