Doctor Is In by Dr. Adil Manzoor OP/ED
The United States of America is well and truly still leading the race of COVID cases, but a familiar competitor is threatening the US’ lead – India.
When the coronavirus first hit the world, many scientists suggested India would be the world’s central hub of the virus. And you can’t blame anyone for making those predictions. Seriously, 1.3 billion people in a temperate region in a relatively underdeveloped country sounds like the perfect breathing site for any infectious disease.
Well … we all thought wrong. The United States is firmly holding onto that lead, with a staggering 13 million more cases than India and 372,000 more deaths. This number certainly looks like India is outperforming the US (it’s not a competition, though!), but the last few weeks have been horrific for India.
There’s a second wave of the virus in the country, and this new wave is so much deadlier than the first wave, primarily because there’s a new, more transmissible strain of the virus. There are horrible sites all around the country, with the sky around cremation centers brightly basking in an orange tint all 24 hours of the day. People are dying.
Reports are starting to suggest that children may be getting infected at a higher rate. There’s usually a cloud of uncertainty around COVID data from India and many other relatively underdeveloped countries because, for one, many deaths in India are usually unreported. Unreported, as in, no records whatsoever of the deaths. The same applies to cases, but this is due to poor testing.
Again, many Indian hospitals have a track record of covering up the actual deaths related to the coronavirus. According to the WHO, any death caused directly by the virus or due to complications caused by the virus, even if there’s an underlying condition, is a coronavirus death. This protocol isn’t always followed in India. As such, it becomes difficult to bank on any data from the country regarding the coronavirus.
Nonetheless, scientists are starting to believe that children are getting infected at a much faster rate. Aside from more children being infected, the infections are more severe in the second wave. In Maharashtra, over 60,000 children were infected between March 1 and April 4. This sounds ridiculous, I know, but wait till you hear that number is likely just a fraction of the actual cases among children.
While children and young people generally aren’t at too much death risk of the virus because they usually have a stronger immune system and better health, it’s still basic math that more cases will lead to more deaths.
The second wave in India is seeing more symptomatic children and more hospitalizations. This is sad news, considering most hospitals are already full to the brim with dead bodies or very sick people. Still on the severity of the second wave, more oxygen is required in managing the condition. This means higher costs, which isn’t in any way favorable in a population like India’s.
If you just skipped to this part of the article, all I’ve said is – India and its kids are in a really bad condition right now; they’re getting more infected and recording more deaths.
Now to the million-dollar question – is the US next? God, I hope not. As a pediatrician, I don’t even want to imagine a scenario where kids become in even greater danger from the coronavirus. Right now, the mortality rate is about 0.19% in children. That’s about 0.19% too high, but it could be far worse – no complaints from me here.
However, this figure could significantly soar if a new and more transmissible variant breaks loose in the country, as it did in India. It’s particularly tricky with babies because the vaccines haven’t been approved for use, and reports are suggesting it wouldn’t be until early to middle 2022. There’s little you and I can do about that.
But where we can truly make a difference is limiting the spread of this virus and its new variants by getting the vaccine as soon as possible and also following COVID guidelines and regulations. If fewer adults get the virus, fewer children will get the virus, and ultimately, fewer deaths. Stay safe.
This article was written by Dr. Adil Manzoor DO, a Board Certified Internist & Board Eligible Pediatrician, who works as a Hospitalist, and Emergency Room Physician. He is also the current President of Garden State Street Medicine, a non-profit organization whose sole purpose is to provide free preventive and acute urgent care services for the homeless. He is also the co-founder of his own unique medical practice Mobile Medicine NJ.
References
· https://qz.com/india/1997 559/indias-second-covid-19-may-be-impacting-more-youth-and-kids/amp/
· https://www.nytimes.com/ 2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html
· https://www.hindustant imes.com/india-news/highest-rise-in-child-mortality-maternal-deaths-likely-in-india-unicef-report-on-covid-19-impact-101616054990 264-amp.html
