by Kristopher Seals OP?ED
By Kristopher Seals OP/ED
By the time you read this, it will be one year since the world changed forever.
On March 11, 2020 a few things happened: Donald Trump, who was President at the time, was telling people not to worry, actress Thora Birch turned 38, and the World Health Organization announced that it was officially designating the Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV / COVID-19 that originated in Wuhan, China as a pandemic.
Life on Earth changed quickly and brutally. Sickness, death, postponements, cancellations, jobs being lost, businesses closed, businesses gone forever, working from home (if you were fortunate enough to keep your job), anger, depression, despair, no sports, no theaters, no concerts, no parks, no school, no houses of worship, no funerals, no routine health care, no public services, no indoor services, reduced services, messed up services, unreliable schedules, testing, quarantines, pods, curfews, virtual press conferences, capacity limits, social distancing, gloves, endless sanitary cleaning, a renewed emphasis on hand washing, and the ubiquitous face coverings.
Yes, all of that happened. While some of those restrictions were lifted or eased, others were not. “Local Talk” was one of the fortunate entities that survived. However, it was not without cost. From April 2020 to June 2020, we operated exclusively online before returning to a print format in July 2020. We even moved to Maplewood, away from a small business sector in Newark that was slowly dying.
Before all of that came to fruition, we informed the public about the online move in a March 26, 2020 edition. In that edition was an article I wrote titled: “Warning: Do Not Underestimate Coronavirus.” Now, I want to see what have we learned, and, have we learned?
First, in the March 26, 2020 article, I made a case for not taking COVID-19 lightly. I would like to take the unusual but necessary step of quoting, well, myself:
“…this is the most critical aspect of this novel coronavirus. I am going to post something that might scare you, but it’s the truth. Two words: VIRUSES MUTATE.”
I wrote that on March 26, 2020. This year, variations, aka mutations, of the virus have surfaced in Europe, South Africa, Brazil and more. All of these places have a diverse population, which is perfect for a virus to gather enough genetic material to mutate, and infect more people. Because of the lack of adherence to protocols to effectively stop transmission of the virus, in that way, we did not learn.
Secondly, the experts at the CDC and respected immunologist Dr. Anthony Fauci pleaded with us to keep social distancing of at least six feet, wear face coverings, wash our hands, and for government officials to take steps to keep people safe. Did we learn?
Well, while it is not that easy to posit a response on the subjective scale, I can look at objective metrics. Earth has about eight billion people. So far, close to 120 million people – officially – have caught the virus. That is just about 1.5% of the human population. Also, close to three million have died, which is about 2.5% percent of those who caught it, and less than 0.1% of the global population.
As for the United States, in a word: ugh. Close to 30 million people – officially – have caught the virus. That is around 9% of the U.S. population, and 25% of all official cases on the planet. Yes, 1/4 of COVID-19 cases on Earth have come from the U.S. alone. There is also a death count approaching 530,000, or about 1.8% of those who caught it.
On one hand, we did not learn. If you have something designated as a pandemic, and millions of people catch and spread it, that is not conducive of following directions. So, in the case of the world, no, we did not learn. Oh, and in the case of the United States, did we learn? Yes, we learned…how to spread a pandemic like a viral tweet!
As putrid as these numbers sound, we actually got lucky. Remember this from the March 26, 2020 article: “…Today, coronavirus primarily kills the elderly and immunocompromised. Tomorrow, it might turn into bird flu, which can kill 80-90 percent of the population.”
Remember the 120 million virus cases and three million dead worldwide? Well, these numbers are estimates based on what was OFFICIALLY reported. If you were to combine those who had the virus but were not tested, which includes those who live in areas without resources for testing, there could be as many – or more – than 300 million people on the planet who at one point had the Novel Coronavirus – and 10 million dead.
Even if you include all undocumented cases, COVID-19 has infected less than 2% of the planet’s population and killed less than 1% of all people who caught it. That makes this a mild pandemic. While things were closed down, they eventually reopened, even before vaccines were readily available.
The CDC has a pandemic severity index. COVID-19 is hovering in the Category 5 range – the highest level. Category 5 has a fatality rate of 2% or higher for those who catch a pandemic virus. The 1918 Spanish Flu was the last one to officially achieve that status.
Imagine this: A “Major Pandemic” would infect 25-49% of the populace, and claim the lives of at least 50% of those infected. A “Severe Pandemic” would infect 50-70% of the populace, and claim the lives of at least 75% of those infected. Finally, an “Extinction Level Pandemic” would infect over 70% of the populace, and claim the lives of at least 80% of those infected.
In the most extreme circumstances, governments would fail, resources like electricity and clean water may be gone or severely restricted, and civilization would resemble that of “The Walking Dead” or any Hollywood pandemic movie. So, yeah, in my opinion, we got lucky.
Finally, I want to address vaccinations. Some people are fine with getting vaccinated. However, others are hesitant, especially those in the African American community, as Black people have been used as guinea pigs with an indifference to their long term health (look up the Tuskegee Experiments). Here is my philosophy. Everything is a risk; it’s just a matter of taking the most calculated risk with the best potential outcome.
Also, as someone from Newark, I feel that there is a better chance of getting killed from a gunshot than getting killed from a vaccination shot. (I don’t care if that makes someone mad. Make the city safer and I won’t have to write things like that.)
With all these things in mind, it is time for a reinforcement of the previous March 26, 2020 warnings. In some of these cases, I will once again be quoting myself.
One: “Do not assume how good your health is.”
Two: Your main objective should be: “Avoid Catching It All Together.”
Three: “VIRUSES MUTATE.” The variants / mutations out there now might either mutate further themselves, or be joined by other mutations.
Four: Follow directions. By getting vaccinated, wearing face coverings, washing your hands, keeping your distance, and self-quarantining as much as possible, “you can avoid having to spend money on cold medicine (if you can find some) and hoping your immune system is fighting a cold or is able to shake off COVID-19, or being hospitalized (and possibly catching something else while next to other sick people), or needing a ventilator that might not be available, or being in intensive / critical care, or worrying about lifelong complications or those that might hit you later on, or dying and having a funeral with no one present because people are barred from holding functions with too many people.”
One more thing, which is a repeat from last year’s article. “There are some of you out there who are saying, ‘They can’t tell me what to do!’ If you are one of those people who are too grown for your own good, please understand that this isn’t about bossing you around right now. This is about someone saying, ‘Don’t put that fork in the electrical outlet.’ Sure, you could do your little, ‘They can’t tell me what to do!’ thing, but do you really want to get electrocuted to prove a point that no one cares about concerning your adulthood?”
In closing, “Remember, this is just advice, based on facts. Please take it.” I don’t want to have to quote myself again next year.
