An Analysis of the 1932, 1968, 1980, 1992 and 2020 Presidential Elections
By Lev D. Zilbermints
As matters currently stand, the country has the highest unemployment numbers since the Great Depression of 1929-1941. There is now 13.3% unemployment, compared with 14.2% a month earlier. Unlike 1929, today’s economic crisis was caused by the coronavirus. And although the economy is reopening, the country is in a recession after nearly 11 years of economic growth. This article will compare 2020 to 1932 and points in between, in an attempt to draw conclusions from historical similarities.
Today, President Donald Trump is using an “America First” approach. This policy consists of protectionist attitude, withdrawing from important treaties, adopting an isolationist approach. Boundaries are closed to immigrants from many countries. There are tariff wars with China. World leaders find Trump difficult to deal with. There are protests in the streets of American cities.
1932
President Herbert Hoover, elected in 1928, is seeking re-election. Like Trump, Hoover favored protectionism and an isolationist policy. The stock market crash of 1929 brought about the Great Depression. After the Roaring 1920s, the economy tanked and would not recover until World War II.
In July 1932, an army of World War I veterans from all over the country marched to Washington, D.C. demanding that the government pay out their war bonuses earlier. Now, the payout was not supposed to happen until 1945, but the veterans demanded it anyway because of the poor economy. The Bonus Army, as it was called, was made of 17,000 U.S. World War I veterans, together with their families and affiliated groups, for a total of 43,000. The Bonus Army was led by Walter W. Waters, a former sergeant.
The demonstrators camped in a “Hooverville” on the grounds of what today is Section C of Anacostia Park. Back in 1932 it was Anacostia Flats, a swampy, muddy area across the Anacostia River from the federal core of Washington. There were approximately 10,000 men, women and children living in two large camps.
The U.S. House passed a bill to move forward the date for veterans to receive their cash bonus. However, the Senate defeated the bill by a 62-18 vote on June 17, 1932 and then fled the city.
A month passed. Finally, President Hoover ordered the Secretary of War Hurley to disperse the protesters. On July 28, 1932, 500 infantry, 500 cavalry, 6 M1917 light tanks and 800 policemen were thrown against the Bonus Army. There were 2 dead veterans and 2 dead children and 55 injured. Government forces suffered at least 69 policemen injured. The Bonus Army was dispersed, their demand for an early payout rejected. The point is that the Bonus Army incident is considered by Wyatt Kingseed, a noted historian, to be a contributing factor in Hoover’s landslide loss of the 1932 election loss to Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
Today, in June 2020, the situation is similar. Various polls show President Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by anywhere between 7 to 15 points. A lot of it has to do with how the media, which is pro-Democratic, portrays President Trump. The other factor is the coronavirus epidemic. The absence of a vaccine or antiviral treatment means that many businesses have to stay closed. In 1932, it was the economy and money. In 2020, it is the coronavirus’ effect on the economy.
Where 1932 and 2020 differ is African-Americans and the way they voted. In 1932, Jim Crow laws prevented many African-Americans from voting in Southern states. In other states, black people could vote, but it was not guaranteed. Separate but equal was the law of the land. Whites and Blacks used separate facilities, lived in segregated neighborhoods, and in many states, could not intermarry. Discrimination and racism were the order of the day. Black people in 1932, when they did vote, cast their ballots for Republican candidates.
Today, black people have been voting Democratic since the 1960s. There are no grandfather clauses or barriers preventing African-Americans from voting, using the same facilities as white people or intermarrying with whites. United States Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas is married to a white woman. Former President Barack Obama’s mother was white. There is still racism and discrimination, but of a different type than decades earlier. The laws were changed in the 1960s and 1970s to ensure greater equality for all, at least in the eyes of the law.
1968
Having compared 1932 to 2020, let us look at other historical examples. In 1968, as in 2020, there was social upheaval and riots in America. President Lyndon B. Johnson, a Democrat, decided not to run for re-election. Republicans nominated former Vice President Richard Nixon. Johnson was blamed for the Vietnam War, the riots, the social upheaval. A pandemic of the influenza A (H3N2) virus entered the U.S.A. in September 1968. According to the Center for Disease Control, the estimated amount of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older.
Nixon defeated incumbent Vice President Hubert Humphrey by a vote of 301-191 in the Electoral College. The popular vote was much closer, with 43.4% for Nixon, 42.7% for Humphrey and 13.5% for George Wallace, who campaigned in favor of racial segregation.
Wallace, the American Independent party candidate, received 46 electoral votes and five states of the Deep South. It was the last time an independent candidate received a substantial amount of electoral votes. Historians consider 1968 to be the election that permanently disrupted the New Deal coalition that had dominated presidential politics since 1932.
The passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 allowed minorities to vote, especially in the South.
1980
During the 1980 presidential election the main issues were the economy, the Iran hostage crisis, inflation, high interest rates, stagnation. President Jimmy Carter, a Democrat, was running for reelection against Ronald Reagan, former actor and governor of California. Independent John Anderson was the third-party candidate. However, unlike 12 years earlier, an independent candidate received no electoral votes.
Reagan defeated Carter in a landslide, with 489 to 49 in the Electoral College. In terms of the popular vote, Reagan had 50.75% to 41.01% for Carter and 6.61% for John Anderson. Republicans won control of the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1955.
1992
During the 1992 presidential election, George H. W. Bush ran against Arkansas governor Bill Clinton and independent Ross Perot. Bush’s ace in the hole, foreign policy, was deemed not important after the fall of the Soviet Union, the end of the Cold War and the relatively peaceful climate in the Middle East after the Gulf War. The economy was in a recession, which made Bush vulnerable. While Bush attacked Clinton’s character and focused on foreign policy, Clinton focused on the economy.
Bill Clinton won the election with 370 votes to 168 for Bush in the Electoral College. Billionaire Ross Perot, who received 19% of the popular vote, did not win any Electoral College votes.
Analyses
However, the election of 2020 has a number of crucial differences from those of 1932, 1968, 1980 and 1992. One key difference lies in the fact that there are serious questions being asked whether ex-Vice President Joe Biden is mentally fit to be President. Franklin Delano Roosevelt had polio and used a wheelchair. Mentally, however, he was all right. In 1968 and 1992 no candidate had health issues. In 1980, Carter tried to make Reagan’s age an issue (Reagan was 69) but it did not work.
With the advent of the Internet, television, cell phones, and social media, communication is much faster than decades ago. Social media has become very important in people’s lives. Thus, when Biden or Trump say something or do something, it becomes immediately known worldwide. Thus, when someone notices Biden forgetting what he said 15 minutes ago, it becomes known immediately.
That is not to say that Trump’s critics have not tried to paint the president as unfit for office. Most recently, former national security adviser John Bolton has published a tell-all book full of criticism against Trump. And over the past three years, numerous doctors and psychologists have publicly stated their opinion, without having examined the president, that Trump is not fit to be president.
Another important difference between 1932 and 2020 is that today the economy is recovering better than in 1932. Congress has repeatedly passed, and Trump signed, legislation giving financial assistance to businesses suffering from the coronavirus-induced recession. President Hoover did not pass any such laws in 1929-1933.
Interestingly enough, in 1932 there was definitely police brutality. At the time, there were no Miranda rights for those arrested. Segregation was the law of the land, with separate facilities for whites and blacks. Today, people are protesting worldwide against police brutality, racism and other issues. In this there is a marked difference between 1932 and 2020.
President Hoover tried to combat the Great Depression by restricting trade and increasing taxes on the wealthy with legislation such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and the Revenue Act of 1932. In contrast, President Trump has signed legislation such as the CARES Act of 2020 to help combat the recession. He has decreased taxes on the wealthy in order to stimulate the economy. The election of 1932 also marked the last time Republicans won a majority of black and African-American vote.
Norman M. Thomas, the Socialist Party candidate, received 884.885 votes, or 2.23% of the popular vote in the 1932 presidential election. He did not get any Electoral College votes. In 2019-2020, another democratic socialist, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, did well in Democratic primaries until defeated by former Vice President Joe Biden.
As this article was being prepared, news came that rapper Kanye West declared his intention to run for U.S. President. West has been endorsed by the billionaire Elon Musk as well as his own wife Kim Kardashian. It is too soon to tell what effect Kanye West will have on the election. One thing is certain, however. It is quite possible that the West campaign will siphon votes from Joe Biden than from Trump. Such a scenario happened in 1992, when Ross Perot siphoned votes from George H.W. Bush.
So where does all this leave the American people? In the final analyses, if the economy improves; a treatment or antiviral is found for the coronavirus; and Biden keeps making mistakes, Trump wins. On the other hand, if the economy does not recover; there is no treatment or cure for the coronavirus; and Trump is seen as insensitive to protests around the country, Biden wins. A lot will depend on the performance of Biden and Trump in the upcoming presidential debates. These could easily make or break a campaign.
The American people must vote their conscience at the polls in November. A lot will depend on which choice America makes.
Lev D. Zilbermints has a Masters in Political Science from Rutgers University, Class of 2005 as well as a Bachelor’s in Political Science from Bloomfield College, Class of 1996.
