By Lev D. Zilbermints
On August 15, 2021 Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, fell to the extremist group Taliban. President Ghani fled into exile with several cars and plenty of money aboard a helicopter.
There is chaos at the Hamid Karzai International Airport, the last outpost controlled by Western forces. Foreign embassies are evacuating their nationals and those Afghans that helped them. These are scenes reminiscent of the Fall of Saigon in April 1975. However, there are many differences between the two. These will be addressed later. This article will show why Afghanistan is known as “the graveyard of the Great Powers.”
Modern Afghanistan dates from 1709, when Mirwais Hotak established his kingdom. The Hotak Dynasty lasted until 1738, when Nader Shah captured Kandahar and deposed the Hotak Dynasty. The Durrani Dynasty took power in 1747. Ahmad Shah Durrani was the founder of the Durrani Empire and of modern Afghanistan. He reigned 1747-1772. After his death, wars for the throne between his successors weakened the empire. The last emperor, Shah Shujah Durrani, was assassinated in 1842.
The first colonial power in Afghanistan was the British Empire. In the 1800s, Britain was involved in “the Great Game”. The British needed Afghanistan to counter the influence of the Russian Empire. India, the crown jewel of the British Empire, was next to Afghanistan. For this reason, Britain needed to control Afghanistan in order to safeguard its interests.
Between 1839-1919 three Anglo-Afghan Wars (1839-1842, 1878-1880, 1919) were fought. In 1842, the Afghans defeated a British force of 16,000. Of these, only a few managed to return to Europe. It was not until the end of the Third Anglo-Afghan War (1919) that Afghanistan became independent. By then, the Russian Empire had fallen apart. Civil war raged between Red and White forces in Russia. The Reds won, and the Soviet Union was declared in 1922.
Afghanistan is a mountainous country. There are many passes, caves, nigh-impossible places where fugitives can hide. Bordering Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and Iran, Afghanistan has a border that is difficult to police. Indeed, Afghanistan is the number one supplier of opium in the world.
Historically, the people of Afghanistan have never had a good relationship with the central government. Even when the native Barakzai Dynasty (1842-1973) ruled Afghanistan, the emirs and kings were victims of coups, revolts and revolutions. Mohammed Zadir Shah, the last King of Afghanistan ruled 1933-1973 before being deposed by his cousin. In 1973, Afghanistan was declared a republic.
In 1978, a coup deposed the president. A year later, in December 1979, Soviet troops invaded Afghanistan. There followed a decade of war between the mujahideen, who fought to free the country from Soviet rule, and the Soviet Union. When Soviet troops withdrew in 1989, they took their puppet, Babrak Karmal, with them. Najibullah, the next ruler, did not last long. His government fell in 1992 and he himself was hanged for his crimes committed during the Soviet occupation.
The period 1993-1996 was full of strife. Certain factions in the new Afghan government were not happy with how things went. A civil war began, ending only when the Taliban came to power in 1996. Their harsh five-year rule along with the refusal to extradite Osama bin Laden to America brought the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. Defeated, the Taliban withdrew. They regrouped in 2003 under Mullah Omar. From that point, the Taliban waged a war against the central government in Kabul. So this proves the point that Afghanis have a history of distrusting the central government.
Neither the British nor the Russians could completely control the country. Afghans have a dislike of being ruled by foreign powers. As was argued earlier, Afghans distrust the central government in Kabul. A native emir or king, being an Afghan, has a better chance of controlling the country than foreign powers.
Corruption is a major problem in Afghanistan. Because the country is poor, the central government, weak, regional governors have a lot of say. Each governor has his own militia, interests and ideas on how the country should be run. Loyalty in Afghanistan is to the tribe first, the governor second, and the central government, last. This is why corrupt officials were able to use Western-provided resources without much oversight. It is also one reason for poverty, as money was used for purposes totally different than originally intended.
Discipline is a key reason why the Taliban won the war. One may not agree with their brand of extremist Islam, but the Taliban had better discipline and organization. Discipline, organization and loyalty were qualities that government troops did not have. While Taliban troops were loyal to Islam and their supreme commander, the loyalty of government troops was worse than in Vietnam. At least the South Vietnamese Army held against the Viet Cong for two years after the Americans pulled out in 1973. In Afghanistan, the discipline, morale, and loyalty of government troops was so bad that the Taliban conquered the country in a week.
The difference between Vietnam and Afghanistan is the level of civilization. Unlike Afghanistan, Vietnam has had long periods of rules by kings. Its people recognized the authority of the central government.
Another difference is that the Communists in Vietnam were not ruled by an extremist ideology from the Middle Ages. This is why Vietnam is much better off than Afghanistan is today.
In conclusion, the reasons why Afghanistan is the graveyard of the Great Powers are many. These include geography; a distrust of foreign powers and the central government; corruption; regional and tribal, rather than national loyalty; poverty; lack of military discipline. Under these circumstances, any attempt to conquer Afghanistan is transitory at best. Even Iraq, with its various tribes, has more of a history with a strong central government.
With the Taliban back in power, one must wonder whether another 9/11 is in the making. The son of Osama Bin Laden has escaped and is at large. Will the Taliban give him refuge or will they refuse? Will al-Qaeda again arise in Afghanistan, or will the Taliban keep it out? Only time will tell.
Lev D. Zilbermints has a Masters in Political Science from Rutgers University, Class of 2005. He also has a Bachelor’s in Political Science, magna cum laude, from Bloomfield College, Class of 1996.
